Could you feel it Saturday? That was March arriving early. Buzzer beaters, big upsets, thick tension … the best month of the season stole the tip, and The Minutes is perfectly fine with that. If you can ignore the embarrassment at Alabama for a few minutes, the rest of the sport is roaring into March like a lion.
Some things are new and different—Pittsburgh is leading the Atlantic Coast Conference, Youngstown State has won its first division league championship (in the Horizon), Southern Mississippi has won its first outright league title in 22 years (Sun Belt). But a lot of other things feel familiar. Let’s look at the habitual trends happening right on schedule as the regular season reaches its final stage.
… For Kansas (1) to come alive. The Jayhawks have won six straight Big 12 games, something no one else has accomplished this season in the toughest league in the country. Their 55–26 smashing of Baylor in the second half Feb. 18 gets The Minutes’ vote for the most impressive 20 minutes any team has played this season. Point guard Dajuan Harris has gotten his game back on track, averaging 12.5 points, 6.7 assists and 2.8 steals during the winning streak.
Let’s wait and see the tourney draw March 12, but Kansas has the players, coach and winning culture to repeat as national champions. No one has gone back-to-back since Florida in 2006–07.
… For Purdue (2) to inject March doubt. On Feb. 1, the Boilermakers were 22–1 and the consensus No. 1 overall seed. Now they’re 24–5, were swept by Indiana, and are reminding the world of the high-achieving program that always experiences NCAA tournament heartburn. Purdue is a bit loose with the ball, a bit vulnerable defensively off the dribble, and a lot too reliant on the largest free-standing structure in West Lafayette, center Zach Edey.
Purdue’s former vice grip on a No. 1 seed is less firm now. Alabama, Kansas and Houston might all be ahead of the Boilers in the pecking order, with UCLA right behind. If they lock up the Big Ten regular-season title this week, that might be enough to keep them on the top seed line. Regardless, a Purdue fan base still traumatized by losses against Saint Peter’s, North Texas and Little Rock will take some familiar anxiety into March Madness.
… For North Carolina (3) to pull out a bid. The Tar Heels finally locked up a big victory Saturday, beating Virginia behind an uncharacteristically hot shooting night from three-point range. (They were 10 of 22, with Pete Nance going 4-for-4 after making one of his previous 18.) UNC still has some ground to cover to get onto the right side of the bubble, but you may recall Hubert Davis’s team was not a sure thing last year going into a daunting season finale against Duke. That’s when Carolina hit the jets and never stopped, advancing all the way to the national championship game. Does this team have that run in it? Seems improbable, but it is largely the same cast of players. Before getting to Duke in the Dean Dome on Saturday, UNC has to win at Florida State on Monday, or the Virginia victory is canceled out.
… For Auburn (4) to become dysfunctional. Much like last year, the Tigers have misplaced their mojo late in the season. After a 16–3 start, they have lost seven of their last 10, haven’t won a road game since Jan. 21 and haven’t beaten an NCAA tournament team away from home since Northwestern on a neutral floor the day before Thanksgiving. Excessive fouling and bad three-point shooting are hurting Auburn, which remains offensively dependent upon the mercurial Wendell Green. In Auburn’s three wins in its last 10 games, he has shot 45% from two-point range, shot 43% from three and had a 4.8-to-1 assist/turnover ratio. In seven losses, Green is shooting 33% from two, shooting 26% from three and had a 1.3-to-1 assist/turnover ratio.
With games remaining against Alabama and Tennessee, Auburn could be 19–12, 9–9 in the SEC and 2–10 in Quad 1 games, which could produce some late-onset bubble stress.
… For Kentucky (5) to piece it together. Over the past two weeks, the Wildcats have cut their Ken Pomeroy rating in half, from No. 44 to 22. As has happened before under coach John Calipari, Kentucky got to the brink of falling apart before rallying. It has had a pair of very impressive home wins against Tennessee and Auburn and a pair of good-enough road wins over Mississippi State and Florida. With Jacob Toppin gaining consistency, the Cats have four reliable offensive weapons (Oscar Tshiebwe, Cason Wallace, Antonio Reeves and Toppin). The defense has improved. The rebounding is powerful. With Saint Peter’s nowhere on the horizon, could they make a run?
… For Virginia (6) to endure a late-February fade. This is the third straight season the back half of February has been a problem for the Cavaliers. From Feb. 14 to 28, their record from 2021 to ’23 is 3–8. Currently, the Hoos are on a two-game losing streak after being upset at Boston College and handled at North Carolina. Before that were shaky wins over ACC bottom dwellers Louisville and Notre Dame. Virginia’s KenPom rating stands at a season-low No. 38. In terms of talent acquisition, Tony Bennett didn’t capitalize on that ’19 national championship.
… For Villanova (7) to loom as a Big East threat. The transition from Jay Wright to Kyle Neptune was not the smoothest. For months, this looked like the first time in a decade the Wildcats would not factor into either the league regular-season race or tournament outcome. They’ll finish no better than fifth in the regular season, but have improved enough to be an x-factor in Madison Square Garden next week. Villanova (15–14) has won five of its last six, including beating Xavier and Creighton last week—and it won those games with No. 2 scorer Caleb Daniels contributing a total of only 10 points. Having Justin Moore back for the last month, after an Achilles injury in the 2022 NCAA tournament regional final, has certainly helped. Nobody will want to face the Wildcats next week in NYC.
… For Fran McCaffery (8) to act like a jerk. The Iowa coach is on his late-season grind, which largely consists of fuming and snarling his way through games. McCaffery was ejected Feb. 19, while his team was being trucked at Northwestern, and it was only through officiating benevolence he wasn’t tossed again Saturday in a game against Michigan State.
After already receiving one technical foul, McCaffery spent part of a timeout late in the game away from the team huddle, silently staring down referee Kelly Pfeifer, hands on hips. He took a couple of steps toward Pfeifer, who then did the same. For a moment it looked like they might keep advancing into an MMA weigh-in staredown, nose to nose, but it didn’t happen. McCaffery deserved a second T for showing up Pfeifer but was spared. What ensued was one of the best bursts of basketball in McCaffery’s 13-year tenure—and his sons were vital components of a stunning comeback.
Trailing the Spartans by 10 points with 40 seconds left, Iowa (9) made five three-point shots to improbably send the game into overtime. That’s hard to do against anyone, much less a Tom Izzo (10) team, but the Spartans were weirdly lackadaisical about getting out on shooters during that stretch. Iowa went on to win in overtime, ending a two-game losing streak. We’ll see whether this stirring victory has legs for the Hawkeyes heading into March, and whether it improves the demeanor of their surly coach.